{"id":18053,"date":"2026-08-20T11:58:55","date_gmt":"2026-08-20T09:58:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/covasna45.ro\/?p=18053"},"modified":"2026-08-20T11:58:56","modified_gmt":"2026-08-20T09:58:56","slug":"romania-lui-bolojan-austeritate-fara-strategie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/covasna45.ro\/index.php\/opinii\/romania-lui-bolojan-austeritate-fara-strategie\/","title":{"rendered":"Rom\u00e2nia lui Bolojan: austeritate f\u0103r\u0103 strategie"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Dup\u0103 mai bine de un an de guvernare Bolojan, se vede c\u0103 nu avem o strategie economic\u0103 valid\u0103. \u021aara merge prost. E evident c\u0103 guvernul a luat o serie de m\u0103suri pentru \u00eendreptarea situa\u021biei economice. Dar la fel de evident e c\u0103 nu a avut o strategie coerent\u0103. A avut reforme, taxe, t\u0103ieri \u0219i interven\u021bii succesive, dar nu se vede niciun cap\u0103t de g\u00e2ndire care s\u0103 le lege. Fiecare minister \u0219i-a administrat propria bucat\u0103 de \u021bar\u0103, iar Guvernul nu a reu\u0219it s\u0103 transforme aceste buc\u0103\u021bi \u00eentr-un proiect coerent.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aici este, probabil, principala vulnerabilitate a mandatului lui Ilie Bolojan. Nu faptul c\u0103 au fost luate m\u0103suri dure. Unele erau inevitabile. Rom\u00e2nia venea dup\u0103 un deficit bugetar de 9,3% din PIB \u00een 2024 \u0219i trebuia s\u0103 fac\u0103 o corec\u021bie. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Problema este alta: nu a legat nimeni lucrurile \u00eentre ele. Finan\u021bele au urm\u0103rit deficitul. Energia \u0219i-a gestionat propriile crize. MIPE a alergat dup\u0103 jaloanele PNRR \u0219i absorb\u021bia fondurilor europene. Transporturile \u0219i-au continuat proiectele. Alte ministere au lansat propriile \u201ereforme\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dar cine a calculat efectul cumulat? Cine a pus pe aceea\u0219i tabl\u0103 deficitul, TVA-ul, accizele, infla\u021bia, energia, carburan\u021bii, consumul, investi\u021biile \u0219i fondurile europene? Nimeni. O \u021bar\u0103 nu poate fi condus\u0103 ca o colec\u021bie de ministere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deficitul a sc\u0103zut. Economia s-a oprit<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Acesta este principalul rezultat contabil al guvern\u0103rii. Deficitul public a cobor\u00e2t de la 9,3% din PIB \u00een 2024 la 7,9% \u00een 2025, iar Comisia European\u0103 estimeaz\u0103 6,2% pentru 2026. Este o corec\u021bie important\u0103 \u0219i necesar\u0103.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Numai c\u0103 factura se vede \u00een economie. \u00cen prim\u0103vara lui 2025, Comisia European\u0103 estima pentru Rom\u00e2nia o cre\u0219tere economic\u0103 de 2,2% \u00een 2026. Acum prognoza este de numai 0,1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Practic, economia stagneaz\u0103.<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Comisia European\u0103 spune explicit<\/a> c\u0103 ajustarea fiscal\u0103 \u0219i infla\u021bia ridicat\u0103 au redus venitul real disponibil \u0219i consumul. Iar indicatorii arat\u0103 deterior\u0103ri ale v\u00e2nz\u0103rilor cu am\u0103nuntul, produc\u021biei industriale \u0219i turismului intern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rom\u00e2nia \u0219i-a reparat, a\u0219adar, par\u021bial deficitul ap\u0103s\u00e2nd puternic pedala de fr\u00e2n\u0103 a economiei.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Infla\u021bia: nota de plat\u0103 a ajuns la popula\u021bie<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

C\u00e2nd Bolojan a preluat mandatul, \u00een iunie 2025, infla\u021bia anual\u0103 era \u00een jur de 5,7%. \u00cen iulie 2025 ajunsese deja la 7,84%, iar ulterior major\u0103rile de TVA \u0219i accize \u0219i liberalizarea pre\u021burilor la energie au \u00eempins pre\u021burile \u0219i mai sus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dar \u00een iulie 2026, infla\u021bia anual\u0103 era \u00eenc\u0103 de peste 8%. Iar Comisia European\u0103 estimeaz\u0103 o infla\u021bie medie de aproximativ 7% \u00een 2026. Mult peste media european\u0103.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0218i aici se vede problema lipsei de coordonare. Ministerul Finan\u021belor a avut nevoie de bani \u0219i a crescut taxele. Energia s-a scumpit. Accizele au crescut. Puterea de cump\u0103rare a fost lovit\u0103. Consumul a sc\u0103zut. Economia a \u00eencetinit. Fiecare decizie poate fi justificat\u0103 separat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dar managementul unei \u021b\u0103ri nu \u00eenseamn\u0103 s\u0103 justifici fiecare decizie separat. \u00censeamn\u0103 s\u0103 \u0219tii ce se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 c\u00e2nd le aplici pe toate simultan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Combustibilii sunt exemplul perfect<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

La instalarea Guvernului, \u00een iunie 2025, benzina costa aproximativ 7,24 lei\/litru, iar motorina \u00een jur de 7,47 lei. Ulterior, fiscalitatea, accizele \u0219i evolu\u021biile interna\u021bionale au \u00eempins pre\u021burile mult mai sus. Iar \u00een august 2026 Guvernul a ajuns s\u0103 reduc\u0103 temporar acciza la motorin\u0103 pentru a limita cre\u0219terea pre\u021burilor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Este imaginea unei politici reactive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Intervii fiscal pentru a ob\u021bine bani la buget. Consta\u021bi apoi c\u0103 efectele economice devin prea mari. Intervii din nou pentru a corecta efectele primei interven\u021bii. Motorina nu este doar problema celui care alimenteaz\u0103 ma\u0219ina. Intr\u0103 \u00een costul agriculturii, transporturilor, construc\u021biilor, distribu\u021biei \u0219i, \u00een final, \u00een pre\u021bul alimentelor \u0219i al aproape tuturor m\u0103rfurilor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fiscalitatea, energia \u0219i infla\u021bia nu pot fi administrate separat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fondurile europene trebuiau s\u0103 fie acceleratorul<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Aici apare poate cea mai important\u0103 oportunitate ratat\u0103. Dac\u0103 reduci deficitul \u0219i restr\u00e2ngi consumul intern, trebuie s\u0103 introduci simultan \u00een economie un alt motor. Rom\u00e2nia \u00eel avea: banii europeni.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00cen iunie 2025, absorb\u021bia efectiv\u0103 a fondurilor aferente Politicii de Coeziune 2021\u20132027 era de aproximativ 14,6% din alocare. Contractarea era mult mai avansat\u0103, dar banii efectiv intra\u021bi \u00een economie erau \u00eenc\u0103 pu\u021bini. Tai cheltuieli neproductive, dar accelerezi investi\u021biile. Reduci deficitul, dar introduci capital european \u00een economie. Restr\u00e2ngi consumul finan\u021bat din deficit, dar stimulezi infrastructura, industria \u0219i investi\u021biile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aceasta ar fi fost o strategie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

PNRR: alerg\u0103m pe ultima sut\u0103 de metri<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Situa\u021bia PNRR este \u0219i mai complicat\u0103. Termenul european pentru \u00eendeplinirea jaloanelor \u0219i \u021bintelor este 31 august 2026. Rom\u00e2nia a renegociat masiv planul \u0219i a ajuns \u00een ultimele luni cu restructur\u0103ri, proiecte mutate, jaloane reevaluate \u0219i o presiune uria\u0219\u0103 asupra administra\u021biei.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Exist\u0103 progrese \u0219i bani atra\u0219i. Dar imaginea general\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2ne aceea a unei curse contra cronometru. Iar problema PNRR este simptomatic\u0103 pentru modul \u00een care func\u021bioneaz\u0103 statul rom\u00e2n. F\u0103r\u0103 nicio strategie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Da, fiecare minister \u0219i-a administrat jaloanele. Dar nici PNRR nu a fost administrat ca un singur proiect na\u021bional, coordonat direct de la centrul Guvernului.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nici marile firme de consultan\u021b\u0103 nu descriu o economie confortabil\u0103<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Analizele PwC, Deloitte, EY \u0219i KPMG converg asupra acelora\u0219i vulnerabilit\u0103\u021bi: infla\u021bie ridicat\u0103, cre\u0219tere economic\u0103 foarte slab\u0103, presiune fiscal\u0103, costuri mari \u0219i incertitudine pentru companii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Agen\u021biile interna\u021bionale de rating transmit acela\u0219i avertisment din alt\u0103 perspectiv\u0103. Rom\u00e2nia r\u0103m\u00e2ne \u00een categoria \u201einvestment grade\u201d, dar aproape de limita inferioar\u0103, cu vulnerabilit\u0103\u021bi legate de deficit, datorie \u0219i capacitatea statului de a implementa reformele.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cu alte cuvinte, Rom\u00e2nia nu s-a pr\u0103bu\u0219it. Dar nici nu exist\u0103 argumente serioase pentru triumfalism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

18 ministere, 18 volane, nicio strategie<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Dup\u0103 mai bine de un an, aceasta mi se pare concluzia esen\u021bial\u0103 a guvern\u0103rii Bolojan. Nu lipsa deciziilor. Ci lipsa unei arhitecturi a deciziilor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dac\u0103 m\u0103re\u0219ti TVA, trebuie s\u0103 calculezi efectul asupra infla\u021biei \u0219i consumului. Dac\u0103 m\u0103re\u0219ti accizele, trebuie s\u0103 vezi efectul asupra transporturilor \u0219i agriculturii. Dac\u0103 reduci cheltuielile publice, trebuie s\u0103 accelerezi investi\u021biile europene. Dac\u0103 energia se scumpe\u0219te, trebuie s\u0103 calculezi efectul asupra industriei.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dac\u0103 restr\u00e2ngi veniturile popula\u021biei, trebuie s\u0103 \u0219tii ce se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 cu retailul, serviciile \u0219i, \u00een cele din urm\u0103, cu \u00eencas\u0103rile bugetare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iar dac\u0103 toate acestea se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 simultan, cineva trebuie s\u0103 stea deasupra ministerelor \u0219i s\u0103 vad\u0103 imaginea \u00eentreag\u0103. Acesta este rolul premierului. Guvernul Bolojan poate revendica reducerea deficitului \u0219i poate argumenta, pe bun\u0103 dreptate, c\u0103 Rom\u00e2nia avea nevoie de o corec\u021bie dur\u0103.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dar austeritatea nu este o strategie economic\u0103. Este doar un instrument.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strategia \u00eenseamn\u0103 s\u0103 \u0219tii ce construie\u0219ti \u00een timp ce tai, de unde trebuie s\u0103 vin\u0103 cre\u0219terea economic\u0103, ce sectoare vrei s\u0103 dezvol\u021bi, cum folose\u0219ti banii europeni pentru a compensa contrac\u021bia fiscal\u0103 \u0219i cum protejezi competitivitatea economiei.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

P\u00e2n\u0103 acum, Rom\u00e2nia a avut multe m\u0103suri \u0219i mai multe tentative de reforme sectoriale. Dar nu a legat nimeni nimic. Iar o \u021bar\u0103 nu poate fi condus\u0103 cu 18 volane (unele compromise, rezultat doar al negocierii politici, nu \u0219i a expertizei mini\u0219trilor). \u0218i nici nu po\u021bi s\u0103 ascunzi lipsa de performan\u021b\u0103 cu o sumedenie de propagandi\u0219ti care \u021bin calde re\u021belele de socializare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Foto: AI<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dup\u0103 mai bine de un an de guvernare Bolojan, se vede c\u0103 nu avem o strategie economic\u0103 valid\u0103. \u021aara merge prost. E evident c\u0103 guvernul a luat o serie de m\u0103suri pentru \u00eendreptarea situa\u021biei economice. Dar la fel de evident e c\u0103 nu a avut o strategie coerent\u0103. A avut reforme, taxe, t\u0103ieri \u0219i interven\u021bii […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":18056,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[1821,352,3134,627,3622,4362],"class_list":["post-18053","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-opinii","tag-austeritate","tag-economie","tag-ilie-bolojan","tag-inflatie","tag-reforme","tag-strategie"],"yoast_head":"\nRom\u00e2nia lui Bolojan: austeritate f\u0103r\u0103 strategie - Covasna45<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Dup\u0103 mai bine de un an de guvernare Bolojan, se vede c\u0103 nu avem o strategie economic\u0103 valid\u0103. \u021aara merge prost.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/covasna45.ro\/index.php\/opinii\/romania-lui-bolojan-austeritate-fara-strategie\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rom\u00e2nia lui Bolojan: austeritate f\u0103r\u0103 strategie - 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