{"id":3667,"date":"2023-10-30T10:53:44","date_gmt":"2023-10-30T08:53:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/covasna45.ro\/?p=3667"},"modified":"2023-10-30T10:54:26","modified_gmt":"2023-10-30T08:54:26","slug":"populatia-romaniei-este-tot-mai-batrana","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/covasna45.ro\/index.php\/lumea-noastra\/populatia-romaniei-este-tot-mai-batrana\/","title":{"rendered":"Popula\u021bia Rom\u00e2niei este tot mai b\u0103tr\u00e2n\u0103"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Popula\u021bia \u021b\u0103rii \u00eemb\u0103tr\u00e2ne\u0219te. \u00cen 1950, ponderea rom\u00e2nilor de peste 65 de ani \u00een totalul popula\u021biei era de 7,16%. Dup\u0103 Revolu\u021bie, ea a urcat la pu\u021bin peste 10%. Din 2003, a trecut pragul de 14%. Acest prag este adesea folosit pentru a defini o societate \u00eemb\u0103tr\u00e2nit\u0103. Anul trecut ne-am apropiat de 20%. Estim\u0103rile INS pentru urm\u0103torii 25 de ani indic\u0103 o pondere de 30% a seniorilor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00cen 2003, c\u00e2nd am trecut pragul societ\u0103\u021bii \u00eemb\u0103tr\u00e2nite, Rom\u00e2nia avea un PIB\/cap de locuitor de circa 2.680 de dolari. \u00cen 1994, c\u00e2nd Japonia a trecut pragul de 14% al ponderii seniorilor, era de aproape 15 ori mai bogat\u0103. Avea un PIB pe cap de locuitor de 39.953 USD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Acesta este unul din marile obstacole \u00een calea dezvolt\u0103rii viitoare a Rom\u00e2niei. Pentru a-\u0219i proteja cet\u0103\u021benii \u00een v\u00e2rst\u0103, dintre care mul\u021bi sunt s\u0103raci, guvernul va trebui s\u0103 cheltuiasc\u0103 mai mult pentru \u00eengrijirea s\u0103n\u0103t\u0103\u021bii \u0219i pentru plata pensiilor acestora. Problema devine \u0219i mai serioas\u0103 dup\u0103 2030, c\u00e2nd se va pensiona o cohort\u0103 important\u0103 – decre\u021beii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201eConvingerea noastr\u0103 este c\u0103 lumea se va schimba. De la o lume defla\u021bionist\u0103 la una puternic infla\u021bionist\u0103\u201d,<\/em><\/strong> spun autorii uneia din cele mai bine prizate c\u0103r\u021bi pe teme demografice: \u201eMarea inversare demografic\u0103\u201d<\/strong>, Charles Goodhart \u0219i Manoj Pradhan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Exist\u0103 trei alternative, spun cei doi economi\u0219ti. <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Prima este cre\u0219terea v\u00e2rstei de pensionare. A doua alternativ\u0103 este ca lucr\u0103torii s\u0103-\u0219i finan\u021beze propria pensie economisind mai mult. De\u0219i e foarte dificil la 25 de ani s\u0103 te g\u00e2nde\u0219ti cum te vei descurca la 85 de ani \u0219i cei nevoie vei avea atunci. Iar al treilea canal este ca statul s\u0103 impoziteze mai mult lucr\u0103torii \u0219i s\u0103 foloseasc\u0103 acei bani pentru a-i transfera c\u0103tre b\u0103tr\u00e2ni – at\u00e2t pentru asisten\u021b\u0103 medical\u0103, c\u00e2t \u0219i pentru pensii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cei doi autori mizeaz\u0103 pe ultimul scenariu \u0219i explic\u0103 \u0219i de ce: \u201e\u00cen primul r\u00e2nd, pensiile persoanelor \u00een v\u00e2rst\u0103 au fost \u00een general protejate de guverne. Apoi, seniorii reprezint\u0103 o puternic\u0103 ma\u0219in\u0103 de vot care se prezint\u0103 la urne \u00een propor\u021bie mai are dec\u00e2t tinerii. Ponderea \u00een cre\u0219tere a aleg\u0103torilor \u00een v\u00e2rst\u0103 \u00een cadrul electoratului este un solid argument pentru cre\u0219terea pensiilor. Re\u021bine\u021bi c\u0103 promisiunile de men\u021binere sau cre\u0219tere a pensiilor au reprezentat adesea o parte semnificativ\u0103 a manifestelor partidelor politice populiste. De exemplu, \u00een Italia, \u00een 2018.\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Popula\u021bia e tot mai s\u0103rac\u0103. Inegalitatea e tot mai mare.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Dac\u0103 elimin\u0103m milionarii \u00een lei (circa 60.000 de rom\u00e2ni au depozite bancare de cel pu\u021bin 1 milion de lei), restul popula\u021biei abia dac\u0103 are 2000 de euro pu\u0219i la saltea, spune Florian Neagu, Director al Direc\u021biei de Stabilitate Financiar\u0103 din BNR. Polarizarea e de unu la 100, spune Neagu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Avem trei probleme \u0219i cu capitalul uman. Prima, c\u0103 suntem tot mai pu\u021bini. Avem o sc\u0103dere a popula\u021biei de circa un milion de persoane \u00eentre cele dou\u0103 recens\u0103minte (2011-2021). A doua, c\u0103 popula\u021bia e tot mai \u00een v\u00e2rst\u0103. Indicele de \u00eemb\u0103tr\u00e2nire demografic\u0103 s-a depreciat foarte mult, cu 20 de puncte procentuale, de la 101% la 121% c\u00e2t e \u00een prezent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Al treilea lucru este legat de educa\u021bie. Suntem pe ultimul loc \u00een ierarhia european\u0103. Pe scurt, suntem tot mai pu\u021bini, tot mai b\u0103tr\u00e2ni \u0219i cu grad de educa\u021bie relativ modest. Toate acestea ceea ce constituie o vulnerabilitate a capitalului uman. Aceast\u0103 vulnerabilitate va avea o implica\u021bie asupra stabilit\u0103\u021bii financiare. Nu azi, nu m\u00e2ine, dar \u00een 10-20 de ani vom ajunge s\u0103 o decont\u0103m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00e2nd sunt \u00eentreba\u021bi rom\u00e2nii de ce nu au conturi curente la b\u0103nci, iat\u0103 r\u0103spunsurile: cei mai mul\u021bi – 42% – spun c\u0103 nu au bani suficien\u021bi, explic\u0103 Neagu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cre\u0219terea inegalit\u0103\u021bii sociale este speculat\u0103 de partidele populiste – de st\u00e2nga sau de dreapta, dup\u0103 caz. Exemplele sunt u\u0219or de dat. Trump \u00een America, Brexit \u00een Marea Britanie, Liga Nordului \u00een Italia, Rassemblement National \u00een Fran\u021ba, AFD \u00een Germania, Orban \u00een Ungaria, Drept \u0219i Justi\u021bie \u00een Polonia. Iar exemplele pot continua.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Popula\u021bia \u021b\u0103rii \u00eemb\u0103tr\u00e2ne\u0219te. \u00cen 1950, ponderea rom\u00e2nilor de peste 65 de ani \u00een totalul popula\u021biei era de 7,16%. Dup\u0103 Revolu\u021bie, ea a urcat la pu\u021bin peste 10%. Din 2003, a trecut pragul de 14%. Acest prag este adesea folosit pentru a defini o societate \u00eemb\u0103tr\u00e2nit\u0103. Anul trecut ne-am apropiat de 20%. Estim\u0103rile INS pentru urm\u0103torii […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3668,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[1664,240,518,26,136],"class_list":{"0":"post-3667","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-lumea-noastra","8":"tag-batrani","9":"tag-ins","10":"tag-populatie","11":"tag-romania","12":"tag-saracie"},"yoast_head":"\nPopula\u021bia Rom\u00e2niei este tot mai b\u0103tr\u00e2n\u0103 - Covasna45<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Popula\u021bia \u021b\u0103rii \u00eemb\u0103tr\u00e2ne\u0219te. \u00cen 1950, ponderea rom\u00e2nilor de peste 65 de ani \u00een totalul popula\u021biei era de 7,16%.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/covasna45.ro\/index.php\/lumea-noastra\/populatia-romaniei-este-tot-mai-batrana\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Popula\u021bia Rom\u00e2niei este tot mai b\u0103tr\u00e2n\u0103 - 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